Hazardous surf warning for Sydney to Illawarra

Southerly swell under a northeast sea breeze

What the warning covers

The Bureau of Meteorology issued hazardous surf warning IDN28522 at 9:21 am on Friday, covering the Hunter Coast, the Sydney Coast and the Illawarra Coast through until midnight.

Surf and swell conditions are listed as hazardous for rock fishing, boating and swimming, which is the widest of the categories used in this style of warning.

Review due, with the next warning statement scheduled to be issued by 5:00 pm on Friday afternoon as the northeasterly peaks.

Why the surf is more powerful than it looks

This is not a storm day, and that is exactly the problem for anyone judging the ocean from a headland or a beach car park.

Winds through the Sydney zone begin variable below 10 knots, become northeast at 10 to 15 knots around midday, then lift to 15 to 25 knots during the early afternoon.

Seas stay below 1 m first thing before rising to around 1 m to 1.5 m in the afternoon, which reads as an easy day on paper.

Underneath that, a southerly swell of 1.5 m to 2.5 m keeps arriving from a different direction, and it is the swell that does the damage in the shore break.

Crossed-up water, with northeast wind chop sitting on top of a long southerly swell, hides the real power until a wave stands up on the sandbank.

Sydney Coast: Broken Bay to Port Hacking

The Sydney marine forecast has northeasterly winds filling in at 10 to 15 knots by midday before strengthening to 15 to 25 knots during the early afternoon.

Swell remains southerly at 1.5 m to 2 m, which is enough to make exposed beaches and bommies behave very differently to the sheltered northern corners.

The land forecast for Sydney is mostly sunny with northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 km/h and a note that the surf will be more powerful than it appears.

Hunter Coast: Seal Rocks to Broken Bay

Hunter waters begin variable around 10 knots and turn northeast at 15 to 20 knots by midday, reaching up to 25 knots offshore south of Norah Head late in the evening.

Seas sit below 1 m early and build to 1 m to 1.5 m during the afternoon, with a southerly swell of 1.5 m to 2 m underneath.

Newcastle itself is mostly sunny with easterly winds of 15 to 25 km/h tending northeasterly in the evening, and fire danger is High across the Greater Hunter.

Illawarra Coast: Port Hacking to Ulladulla

The Illawarra carries both a hazardous surf warning and a strong wind warning for Friday, which makes it the most exposed of the three coasts in the alert.

Northeasterly winds of 15 to 25 knots are expected by midday, increasing to as much as 30 knots offshore south of Point Perpendicular during the evening.

Seas of around 1 m rise to 1 m to 2 m in the afternoon, sitting beneath a southerly swell of 2 m to 2.5 m.

Wider pattern, with strong wind warnings also current for the Batemans and Eden zones on Friday and more of the coast flagged for Saturday.

Bars, ramps and entrances

Each of the coastal waters forecasts carries the same caution, noting that conditions may be hazardous for small boats on coastal bars and for rock fishing.

A southerly swell of this size does not need a gale to stand up steeply in the shallows at the Port Hacking entrance, where the bar faces the swell direction squarely.

Further north, the Swansea channel and the Lake Macquarie entrance can turn ugly on an outgoing tide when a long southerly swell meets wind chop pushing in from the northeast.

Boats working out of Wollongong face the same question, with a building northeasterly over a solid southerly swell making the return leg the harder half of the trip.

People should consider staying out of the water and avoid walking near surf-exposed areas.

NSW Police Force, Marine Area Command

Marine Area Command also advises boaters planning a bar crossing to consider changing or delaying the trip, to wear a lifejacket, and to log on with Marine Rescue by VHF radio or app.

Rock platforms and the shoreline

Rock fishers are being urged to avoid exposed platforms, which is the standard advice attached to this warning and the hardest to follow on a sunny Friday.

Platforms that look dry for several minutes at a time can be swept by a single larger set arriving from the south, well outside the rhythm of the smaller waves.

The advice to avoid walking near surf-exposed areas extends to ocean pools, rock shelves and low headland tracks where a wave can reach the path.

Heat, sun and the land forecast

Sydney is forecast to reach 25° in the city, with 23° at Bondi and a warmer 29° out at Penrith under mostly sunny skies.

Newcastle is forecast to reach 24°, which is comfortable enough to draw crowds to beaches where the water is doing more work than it appears.

The UV index is Very High at 9 for both Sydney and Newcastle, with sun protection recommended between 9:00 am and 4:10 pm.

Warm and unsettled, with Saturday in Sydney forecast between 17° and 28° and showers possible, including the chance of a storm.

Into the weekend

A high pressure system crossing New South Wales is extending a ridge across the coastal waters, which is what is keeping the mornings light and the skies mostly clear.

Winds are shifting north to northeasterly and strengthening through Friday as a trough moves in from the west, and strong wind warnings cover more of the coast on Saturday.

A southerly change is expected along the southern half of the coast during Sunday, which will reshuffle both the wind and the swell direction again.

Is the whole New South Wales coast affected?

No, the hazardous surf warning names the Hunter, Sydney and Illawarra coasts, while the Macquarie zone has a southerly swell of 2 m to 2.5 m without a surf warning listed.

Why issue a surf warning when the wind is light?

Because the hazard is the southerly swell rather than the wind, and a 2 m to 2.5 m swell under a northeasterly sea breeze produces a heavier shore break than the sea state implies.

Can I still take the boat out on the harbour?

Enclosed waters are the easier option on Friday, with the real risk concentrated at coastal bars, entrances and the open ocean where the swell is running.

When does the warning end?

The current warning runs until midnight on Friday, with the next statement due by 5:00 pm, so conditions should be rechecked before any late afternoon plan.

Before you go

Check the latest alerts on our NSW warnings page before heading to the coast or launching this afternoon.

Planning further afield this weekend? Compare conditions on our Brisbane wind forecast .